Activate, Issue #4: Getting Motivated for the Mid-Terms

The 2022 Mid-Terms Are As Consequential as the 2020 Presidential Election.

Activate’s Advisors are Nikola Bozinovic, Ellen Ehrenpreis, Catherine Foster, Jon Foster, Don Keller, and Glen Van Ligten

Wondering whether you’ll vote in November 2022?  Or volunteer, or make financial contributions?  Stop wondering.  Though we are used to thinking that presidential elections are the most consequential we face, think again.  Here’s what’s on the national ballot this fall (we’ll talk about state and local races in the next issue), and some ideas for action:

1.     The House Committee investigating the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol is going to hold prime time hearings beginning on June 9.  Expectations about what we will learn during those hearings are high.  In the meantime, news about that day continues to leak.  CNN released a collection of Mark Meadows’ January 5-6 text messages last week, in which some Trump-allied actors were, in real-time during the attack, hatching the first attempt at a counter-narrative—that it was ANTIFA dressed to look like Trump supporters who were holding Congress hostage that day—and others were begging Meadows to get Trump to call off his army.  Trump, of course, was enjoying the show on TV and otherwise cheering on the coup.  We also now know that Trump was feeding the mob’s appetite to commit violence against his own Vice President, leading Vice President Pence’s chief of staff to put the head of Pence’s Secret Service detail on high alert on January 6.  If the GOP takes over the House, this investigation ends (and GOP propaganda to discredit it will begin).

2.     Since the start of this year, we have endured 233 mass shootings, with 261 people killed and more than 1000 injured.  More than 150 children have died from gun violence this year, 20 of them in classrooms in Uvalde, Texas, while police stood outside doing nothing for more than an hour (other than tazing and hand-cuffing parents who were pleading with them to act).  We are unable to pass reasonable gun regulations because Republican lawmakers refuse to consider them.

3.     In red state after red state, we have seen passage of laws banning abortion under virtually any circumstance, banning books deemed by those legislatures to be too “liberal” (including “Maus,” a Pulitzer-winning graphic novel about the Holocaust), banning any classroom mention of LGBTQ+ people, banning discussions in school of America’s troubled history with white supremacy, calls to integrate Christian teaching in the classrooms, and branding medical treatment for trans youth as criminal child abuse.  Florida and Ohio have considered banning trans girls from competing in school sports, complete with genital exams as the means of proof.  Florida passed laws penalizing Disney for criticizing that state’s so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill.  The list goes on and on.  President Biden would veto this sort of legislation if it reached his desk, but you can bet a Republican Congress would spend countless hours waging these culture wars in the halls of the Capitol rather than confronting real problems.

It is hard to imagine a more compelling set of arguments for Democrats and Independents to vote in the mid-term elections.  Though conventional wisdom holds that Presidents nearly always lose their Congressional majorities in their first mid-term, nothing is inevitable.  That said, the current Democratic margin in the House of Representatives is only nine seats, and the U.S. Senate is evenly divided between Democrats (and Independents who caucus with them) and Republicans (though two Democrats—Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ)—frequently obstruct passage of Democratic programs). 

In the Senate, there are five races that Ballotpedia lists as “toss-ups”, and four in which pollsters believe the electorate is “leaning” one way or the other.  Though there are 35 open Senate seats in 2022, these nine are the only races where polling organizations express any doubts about possible outcomes.  If you’re looking for places to focus your monetary contributions, these are the toss-up races:

Arizona: Mark Kelly (Democrat, Astronaut and Incumbent) vs. Republican nominee (primary is August 2)

Georgia: Rafael Warnock (Democrat, Preacher and Incumbent) vs. Herschel Walker (Republican, Heisman trophy winner, 1992 Olympic bobsledder, small-time chicken distributor, Trump-endorsed.)

Nevada: Catherine Cortez-Masto (Democrat, former state AG and Incumbent) vs. TBD (three Independents running, no Republicans, primary is June 14).

Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (Democrat, current Lt. Gov.) vs. Mehmet Oz (doctor, television quack, and Trump pick).

Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (Trump stalwart, plastics manufacturer, and Republican incumbent) vs. Democrat to be named (primary is August 9).

In the races deemed “leaners,” a Democrat is defending only one (Maggie Hassan, NH), and Republicans three (Marco Rubio, FL; Richard Burr, NC; Rob Portman, OH).

If you want the most bang for your buck, consider allocating funds to the toss-up races listed—the best-case scenario is all three Democratic incumbents keep their seats and two seats flip blue.

With respect to the “leaner” races, you can either contribute directly to the Democrats in those races or contribute to an organization closer to the action on the ground, who can make better-informed judgments about where and how to allocate resources.  Two good options are Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Blueprint, by Swing Left. 

You can also contribute—with money or your time (or both)—to GOTV efforts, or to work or watch the polls.  States United Democracy Center covers a lot of ground on that front, and Power the Polls is working to recruit poll workers for the 2022 primaries and general election.  And, of course, the Democratic Party always welcomes workers and organizers.

Next week: Key State Races